:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0211Z from an unnumbered plage region in the southern hemisphere.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug,
25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
23/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4363 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 101
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20