:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
29/1107Z from Region 3088 (S27W95). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class or X-class flares on day one (30 Aug) and expected
to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1410Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 29/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
29/0310Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 29/0650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (31 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (01 Sep).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 131
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 130/125/120
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  013/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    50/30/15