:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
01/1358Z from Region 3092 (S09E67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep,
04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 601 km/s at 01/0553Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2227Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (03 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    25/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 116
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 116/118/118
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  009/010-012/015-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/15/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/65