:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1716Z from Region 3089 (S23W46). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 512 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
02/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/2030Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 130
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 124/124/120
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  012/015-021/030-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           15/40/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/65/45