:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0141Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 07/0027Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1612Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15367 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 126
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10