:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/1119Z from Region 3100 (S25E48). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep,
12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 10/2053Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/0527Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15502 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Sep, 13
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 136
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 128/126/123
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  008/008-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/20