:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/1810Z from Region 3110 (N16E72). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 23/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/0721Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 372 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 146
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 146/142/148
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  014/018-011/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/25