:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/0706Z from Region 3110 (N16E46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 24/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0951Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep,
27 Sep, 28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 135
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 140/142/145
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  008/008-010/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20