:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
02/2025Z from Region 3110 (N17W52). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 02/2039Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 02/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/2031Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 145 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 154
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 155/155/145
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  016/020-027/040-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/35
Minor Storm           30/40/10
Major-severe storm    05/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    50/65/25