:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
03/1011Z from Region 3110 (N18W65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 03/1218Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 03/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 03/1900Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(04 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Oct) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    75/70/70
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     35/30/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 155
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 154/152/148
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  028/040-015/020-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           35/10/15
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/35