:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/1444Z from Region 3116 (N29E00). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 07/1826Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/1204Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2903 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 160
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 160/158/156
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  009/012-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20