:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0740Z from Region 3124 (S34W68). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Oct,
20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 577 km/s at 18/0336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/0450Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 707 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Oct), quiet to active levels on day
two (20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 114
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  006/005-012/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/15
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/40/25