:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/1903Z from Region 3133 (N26E73). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct,
27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 497 km/s at 24/2109Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 116
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 116/114/112
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  204/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  005/005-006/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/40