:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/2029Z from Region 3135 (N27E65). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct,
30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 28/1942Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 28/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
28/1419Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 129
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 128/128/125
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  017/020-018/028-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/70/50