:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
04/0744Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov,
06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 03/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 03/2105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5870 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (07
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 118
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  016/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  014/020-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/35