:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1727Z from Region 3141 (N15E50). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov,
08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 532 km/s at 06/1527Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8981 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 131
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/40