:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 347 km/s at 09/2340Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/1456Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
10/1917Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1334 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 139
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  011/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  007/010-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/20