:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0018Z from Region 3141 (N15W27). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 12/1810Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 11/2228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
11/2126Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 138
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 140/130/125
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  009/008-007/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/30