:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/0538Z from Region 3140 (N23W89). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (17 Nov) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (18 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a
C-class flares on day three (19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 15/2103Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/2224Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Nov).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    35/25/05
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 133
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 133/125/122
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  006/005-009/010-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor Storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/50