:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0928Z from Region 3140 (N23W0*). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (18 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 406 km/s at 17/1454Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
17/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/2335Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    15/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 119
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 118/118/118
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  009/010-014/018-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/40
Minor Storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/50/60