:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/1617Z from Region 3151 (S16W0*). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec,
02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 30/1858Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 30/1826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 30/1732Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9440 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 111
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  020/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  017/025-014/020-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/35