:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
02/0920Z from Region 3156 (N25E63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec,
05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1059 km/s at 02/0712Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 02/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 02/0217Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8776 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (05 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 124
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  011/012-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/20