:Product: 1211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1140Z from Region 3153 (S17W59). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 11/1753Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1352Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 148
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 145/140/130
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20