:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1953Z from Region 3169 (N20E69). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 17/0615Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/1841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
17/0644Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec, 20 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 155
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 155/153/150
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec   NA/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  009/010-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/20