:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
19/1429Z from Region 3169 (N21E48). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 19/2037Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 19/0124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
19/0500Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Dec, 22 Dec)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Dec,
21 Dec, 22 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 152
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 145/135/125
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  008/010-017/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/25
Minor Storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/15/20