:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1406Z from Region 3169 (N21E36). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 20/1517Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at
20/0744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/2052Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (23
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 146
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec 140/135/125
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  017/020-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/20/10