:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/2219Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 22/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
22/1731Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 131
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  010/010-009/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20