:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
31/2148Z from Region 3180 (N19E56). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan,
04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 01/0009Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/1918Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2887 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 153
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 155/158/155
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  009/008-005/005-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/35
Minor Storm           05/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/60