:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/1845Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 04/0209Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 04/0924Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/0300Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1394 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 151
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 152/154/152
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  015/020-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/30