:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
06/0057Z from Region 3182 (S16E59). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 06/0903Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 06/0841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/1235Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jan,
08 Jan, 09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 172
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  007/008-008/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/40