:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2329Z from Region 3190 (S14E20). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (19 Jan,
20 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 18/0405Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 17/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
17/2302Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20
Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 220
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 220/218/215
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  012/016-010/012-012/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/35/40