:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
20/2247Z from Region 3192 (N16W15). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 21/0908Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/0716Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23
Jan, 24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 209
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 205/200/205
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  011/012-008/008-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/25