:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
25/1011Z from Region 3190 (S14W89). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 24/2133Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
25/1310Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 389 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jan,
27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    35/35/25
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 172
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  010/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15