:Product: 0126RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Jan 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 26/1306Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (29 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 26/1850Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/2027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 351 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jan). III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan Class M 30/30/25 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jan 151 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/10