:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 07 2250 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2007Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb,
10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 07/0822Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 07/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 07/0148Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 185
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 185/185/190
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  011/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25