:Product: 0222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
22/1350Z from Region 3234 (N25E47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 511 km/s at 22/0602Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
22/0011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/1020Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 152
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 150/148/148
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  007/008-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25