:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
06/0228Z from Region 3243 (N18W78). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 06/0854Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/2158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0453Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3789 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 188
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 190/195/190
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  013/016-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/35/20