:Product: 0330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
30/0737Z from Region 3256 (S22W88). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/2027Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 30/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/1421Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 140
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 135/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  015/018-014/016-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/35
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/45/40