:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
22/0148Z from Region 3279 (S19W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr,
25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 22/1152Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/2113Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 22/2010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 141
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 140/135/135
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  009/013-026/038-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/30
Minor Storm           30/35/15
Major-severe storm    10/35/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/79/45