:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1305Z from Region 3283 (S23W56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/0059Z. Total
IMF reached 34 nT at 24/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -33 nT at 24/0106Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 23/2125Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 349 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (26 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 134
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  032/082
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  043/079
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  019/022-007/008-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/30
Minor Storm           30/05/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/20/40