:Product: 0429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
29/1017Z from Region 3288 (S23W31). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 29/1552Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 29/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 29/1007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12967 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01
May, 02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 156
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  014/015-012/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/25