:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
01/1309Z from Region 3288 (S23W56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 01/1853Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8863 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May) and
quiet levels on day three (04 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 148
Predicted   02 May-04 May 148/146/142
90 Day Mean        01 May 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  012/015-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/15