:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/0901Z from Region 3294 (S07W47). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 10/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/0228Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 29 pfu at 10/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (12
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     70/50/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 163
Predicted   12 May-14 May 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        11 May 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  014/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  020/030-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/20/20