:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/1336Z from Region 3296 (N15W76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 12/0615Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 12/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/1232Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 592 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day two (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 149
Predicted   13 May-15 May 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        12 May 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  010/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15