:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
31/2252Z from Region 3323 (S05E68). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 01/1616Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/0547Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 164
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 160/155/155
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  010/015-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/20/20