:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0658Z from Region 3330 (N18W59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 12/1531Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 12/1559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/1503Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 146
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 146/148/146
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/012-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10