:Product: 0630RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/1003Z from Region 3354 (N13W30). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 30/1403Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2200Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2632 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jul).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 159
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  012/015-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/10