:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/0144Z from Region 3361 (N24W12). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul,
11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 07/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 830 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Jul, 10 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 161
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 160/155/155
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  011/012-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20