:Product: 0710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/0355Z from Region 3366 (S10W52). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 495 km/s at 10/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/1335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/2358Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 933 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 191
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 192/190/188
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  006/005-010/012-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/20