:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/1516Z from Region 3372 (N23E01). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 16/1729Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 16/2231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/2155Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 16/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    50/50/45
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     15/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 180
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 178/174/172
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  013/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  019/026-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20